Investment giant VanEck is forecasting a strong risk-on environment for 2026, identifying opportunities across AI stocks, private credit, and gold despite acknowledging that Bitcoin has broken from its predictable four-year cycle pattern. The firm's outlook suggests investors should look beyond crypto's traditional patterns while maintaining cautious optimism about digital assets.
Global investment manager VanEck has released a bullish forecast for 2026, projecting a risk-on investment climate even as Bitcoin deviates from its historically reliable four-year market cycle.
In their latest market outlook, VanEck analysts identified several compelling opportunities across traditional and alternative asset classes. The firm highlighted artificial intelligence stocks as particularly attractive following significant corrections, with valuations having reset approximately 50% from recent peaks. This repricing, according to VanEck, presents a strategic entry point for investors who missed earlier AI rallies.
The private credit market also features prominently in VanEck's 2026 thesis, with yields hovering around 9%—a rate that offers substantial income generation in an environment where investors are increasingly seeking alternatives to traditional fixed-income securities. This asset class has gained significant traction as institutional investors diversify away from conventional bond portfolios.
Perhaps most notably, VanEck emphasized gold's "structural re-emergence" as a critical portfolio component, reflecting growing concerns about currency debasement, geopolitical instability, and persistent inflation pressures that continue to drive demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
Regarding Bitcoin, VanEck acknowledged a significant shift in market dynamics. The flagship cryptocurrency has historically followed a predictable four-year cycle closely tied to its halving events, which reduce mining rewards and historically preceded substantial bull runs. However, the firm noted that this pattern appears to have broken down, necessitating a more cautious approach to crypto allocations in the near term.
This cycle disruption doesn't diminish VanEck's broader risk-on stance but suggests that Bitcoin may require independent analysis rather than relying on historical precedents. The firm has been a prominent voice in the cryptocurrency space, having launched one of the early Bitcoin ETF products in the United States.
VanEck's multi-asset approach for 2026 reflects a sophisticated understanding of current market conditions—balancing optimism about growth opportunities with recognition that traditional patterns may not hold. For investors, this suggests a year of careful selection rather than broad market bets, with opportunities distributed across both conventional and alternative investment vehicles.
The outlook underscores how institutional perspectives on crypto are maturing beyond simple cycle predictions toward more nuanced, integrated portfolio strategies.