On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has identified striking similarities between current Bitcoin network conditions and those observed in early 2022, when the cryptocurrency traded near all-time highs before a prolonged correction. Multiple stress indicators suggest the market may be approaching a transitional period as network activity and holder behavior mirror patterns from nearly three years ago.
Bitcoin's on-chain metrics are flashing warning signals reminiscent of early 2022, according to new research from leading blockchain analytics platform Glassnode, raising questions about whether the current market cycle may be reaching a critical juncture.
The analysis reveals that several key network stress indicators have reached levels last observed in January and February 2022, when Bitcoin was trading above $40,000 before embarking on a multi-month decline that eventually saw prices bottom near $15,500 by November of that year. These parallels include profit-taking behavior among long-term holders, exchange flow patterns, and network congestion metrics.
Glassnode's researchers note that realized profit ratios—which measure the degree of profit being locked in by investors—have climbed to territories that historically precede market cooling periods. Additionally, the supply held by short-term holders has been increasing, suggesting a shift in coin distribution from seasoned investors to newer market participants, a pattern typically associated with late-stage bull market dynamics.
The on-chain stress doesn't necessarily portend an immediate downturn, analysts caution. Market conditions in 2025 differ significantly from 2022, including improved macroeconomic backdrop, growing institutional adoption, and the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs that have fundamentally altered market structure. However, the similarities warrant attention from traders and investors seeking to understand current market positioning.
Network transaction fees have also spiked recently, indicating heightened activity and competition for block space—another parallel to early 2022 when speculative fervor drove gas prices higher. This congestion can be interpreted as both a sign of robust demand and potential overheating.
Market participants are now closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can break through its current resistance levels or if the mounting on-chain stress will translate into a period of consolidation or correction. Historical patterns suggest caution, though cryptocurrency markets have repeatedly defied precedent.
As Bitcoin continues to mature as an asset class, on-chain analytics provide increasingly valuable insights into market psychology and potential inflection points, making Glassnode's latest observations particularly relevant for anyone navigating the current market environment.